On the Brink: solutions

Towards a Clean Energy Future

Through the Kyoto protocol, most of the industrialized world has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 5% below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. While these goals have been termed "politically ambitious" and "psychologically important", these modest targets really represent only a good first step towards solving the problem, because the scientific facts are abundantly clear that we will need to reach a 70% greenhouse gas emission reduction by 2050 if we are to prevent an environmental catastrophe.
Where are these emissions cuts going to come from? Studies show that the United States can cut its greenhouse emissions by 30% through conservation and efficiency measures alone, creating a tremendous energy savings without impacting our standards of living.
The other 40% of the reductions necessary to stabilize the Earth's climate will have to come from alternative technologies. A shift of this magnitude is going to require a massive transition from a predominately fossil fuel system to undetermined alternative sources of primary power.
In order to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at twice the pre-industrial atmospheric level—a level high enough that it is still going to cause a significant amount of environmental damage—without sacrificing economic growth, it requires that by the year 2050, we generate between 100% to 300% the amount of today's current global power needs from carbon-free sources.
NYU physicist Martin Hoffert states that, "the implied transition in the world energy system to non-CO2 emitting sources of this magnitude fifty years hence is mind-boggling." Hoffert puts this into perspective by pointing out that nuclear reactors have been around since 1943 and still contribute only 5% of our energy supplies, and yet 1943 is more distant in the past than 2050 is in the future.
The good news is that there are clean—virtually limitless—alternative energy sources available such as solar power, wind, hydrogen fuel cells, and biomass—energy sources that do not contribute to global warming, and which rely on proven technologies already in use. The bad news is that none of these energy sources are ready—at least yet—to sufficiently provide for the current global energy demand of 12 trillion watts per year. And yet, if we're going to have any hope of limiting global warming, we are going to need to transition to these alternative energy sources as quickly as possible.
Solar power is becoming increasingly cost effective, but to generate the equivalent of 10 trillion watts would require panels covering 85,000 square miles—an area larger than the state of Kansas. To put this in perspective, the total number of panels shipped from 1982 to 1998 would cover just 2 square miles. A massive scale-up is not insurmountable, but since we need more than 40,000 times the number of solar panels than have ever been manufactured, we clearly have a long way to go.
Land use issues also hamper the ability of biomass to be used as a major source of power, because in order to generate 10 trillion watts of energy, it would require the use of an area equal to 10 percent of the Earth's surface area—an area the size of all the land that's currently used for agriculture. Martin Hoffert states that, "you can imagine a world where the only things on the planet would be human beings and wheatŠNo other biological diversity would exist, because we would have appropriated all of the land surfaces to do that. That's the kind of issue that you have to deal with when you seriously talk about stabilizing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere."
Similarly, electrolyzers can make hydrogen out of water using carbon-free energy sources, and fuel cells can combine hydrogen and oxygen to create water and energy, yet current practical fuel cell designs all require the use of platinum as a catalyst. Producing 10 terawatts of energy in a hydrogen economy would require more platinum than exists on Earth.
Wind power, the fastest growing alternative energy source, is quickly becoming cost effective. However, at present, wind power is limited by its episodic nature and also by the fact that the sources of wind power tend to be in rural areas while the majority of the population lives in cities. This longer distance to the consumers means that more electricity is lost as it moves along the transmission wires.
Unfortunately, although each of these alternative technologies is based on proven technology, none of them are ready to be mobilized on the kind of massive scale necessary to sufficiently relieve our dependence on fossil fuels. Nevertheless, the potential of alternative energy technology is enormous. One study estimates that the wind corridors of the Kansas and Nebraska alone could provide double the amount of electricity needed in the U.S. Similarly, based on current solar efficiency, the entire American electricity demand could be met using solar panels over an area 8% the size of Arizona. What is needed is the kind of massive investment into research and development that can make these technologies both practical and cost-effective.
Humanity stands on the brink of a new revolution in energy technology. We are on the verge of harnessing the sun, the wind, and of the abundant hydrogen present in every molecule of water. Each of these represents a massive, virtually limitless source of power. We are so very close to these solutions, and yet, with the threat of environmental catastrophe bearing down on us, we are so agonizingly far from solving the problem. And it's no mystery as to what will happen if we don't solve the problem. Without a dramatic shift in our energy sources, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise and global warming will continue to worsen, making the worst case scenarios increasingly likely.
The disturbing truth is that, at present, our society has absolutely no plan for solving the global warming problem. By failing to plan, are we planning to fail?
We all want to believe in Providence—that technology will come along to magically solve the problem. That the cavalry will arrive just in time to save us. That everything will be all right. The problem with all of this is that it's really not much more than wishful thinking. Without a plan for dealing with this issue, we are sleepwalking into an increasingly dangerous future.
The good news is that everything can be all right. Solutions to global warming are within our grasp. We already have many of the tools, the resources, and much of the technology to solve this problem. We need only collectively muster the will to act.
A massive switch to alternative energy will neither happen on its own, nor will it happen overnight. A growing chorus of scientists and economists maintain that, in order to successfully make the leap to alternative energy in time to avoid an environmental catastrophe, we must create a Apollo-type program to radically speed up the development of carbon-free energy sources.
The kind of massive retooling of the global energy system that is needed is obviously not without significant costs, but as Oceanographer Dr. Richard Gammon told the United States Congress, "If you think mitigated climate change is expensive, try unmitigated climate change." We need to start dealing with the causes of global warming if we are to avoid being bankrupted by its effects.
Necessity has always been the mother of invention and when we, as a society, have been absolutely determined to get something accomplished, we invariably find a way to do the seemingly impossible. Faced with the prospect of losing World War II to an adversary that was attempting to develop nuclear weapons, the United States government undertook the Manhattan Project, which succeeded in creating the first atomic bomb—in just two and a half years. Faced with the prospect of losing the space race to the Soviets, in 1961 President John F. Kennedy audaciously committed this nation to putting a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth, and we did exactly that—just seven and a half years later. We need only look to these accomplishments in order to see that—if we are armed with the appropriate resources, and if we are guided by an unrelenting resolve—we are indeed capable of accomplishing the near-miraculous. The gathering menace of global warming-induced climate change demands nothing less of us. The reality is that we must undertake massive change or face massive catastrophe. And if we are to retain our humanity, failure is not an option.
The Chinese pictogram for "crisis" is composed of two symbols, the first is the symbol for "danger", the other for "opportunity". Optimistically, Pulitzer Prize winning author Ross Gelbspan writes that, "the escalating alarm signals emanating from our increasingly disturbed planet contain the seeds for a sweeping transformation. It is not hard to understand that nature is holding a gun to our head. What is harder to understand, at first, is that this moment also presents an opportunity for extraordinary, positive change."
Indeed, humanity is faced with a tremendous opportunity because, historically, every energy transition we have undergone, from wood to coal to oil and natural gas has provided cleaner, more efficient forms of energy and each of these transitions has been accompanied by enormous economic growth. Similarly, a transition to alternative fuels holds the promise of ushering in a major new era of tremendous economic prosperity.
The existence of global warming is no longer a question of science. The evidence is incontrovertible. We know enough to know that we must act. The solutions are here, within reach. Are we prepared to make the leap required to grasp our future? As the threat of global warming grows larger by the day, pushing the solution that much further into the distance, how much longer can we afford to stand here, waiting, on the brink...?

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